Towards Probablistic Asset Management of Storm Surge Barriers Under Rapidly Changing Circumstances

EasyChair Preprint 8645

Abstract

The Netherlands have been applying probabilistic maintenance and operations to their storm surge barriers for more than 15 years. This is a risk based approach enables the asset manager to continuously maintain the required performance level while optimizing the maintenance costs. A probabilistic reliability analysis (PRA) helps the continuous monitoring of the actual performance level and search for improvements if necessary. The PRA is a highly detailed analysis that uses fault and event tree like techniques to address all relevant risks that might threaten the structure’s performance. The high level of detail enables the efficient assessment of the consequences of (temporarily) changes like longer repair times, higher failure rates or a smaller operational team.

As a consequence of sea level rise, socio-economic changes and aging, discrepancies between desired and actual performance occur more frequently and grow faster than previously. In order to anticipate these discrepancies more rigorous system adjustments are needed. Yet, the high level of detail that has proven so useful for probabilistic maintenance also reduces the transparency, accessibility and adjustability of the risk models. This complicates the efficient exploration of large system adjustments.

In this presentation we analyse how the high level of detail reduces the usability and explore how the models might be adjusted to minimize this effect.

Keyphrases: Asset Management, Probabilistic maintenance, risk assessment, storm surge barriers, system reliability

@booklet{EasyChair:8645,
  author    = {Alexander Bakker and Leslie Mooyaart and Evert Jan Hamerslag and Laurie van Gijzen},
  title     = {Towards Probablistic Asset Management of Storm Surge Barriers Under Rapidly Changing Circumstances},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 8645},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2022}}