Rainfall Analysis of Jhelum Basin Kashmir Valley

EasyChair Preprint 6335

Abstract

Kashmir is a part of UT Jammu and Kashmir. It is surrounded by greater Himalayas on all sides. Kashmir has an area of about 15,502 km2 . It has variable topography due to which weather is mostly unpredictable. Climatic condition of Kashmir valley shows variability in nature. The present study is intended to analyze the rainfall and temperature of the region for about last four decades. The data included six stations with the time series from 1980-2018. Srinagar station receives mean annual rainfall of 682.78 mm. Gulmarg station receives mean annual rainfall of 1417.03 mm, which is highest among all the stations. The data was checked for the consistency with the help of double mass curve. The data showed consistency in accordance with the double mass curve. The analysis was done by performing various tests including Mann Kendall test, 5- year moving average and linear regression. This study also evaluated return period, frequency and probability of occurrence of all the six stations. The results showed decrease in the rainfall trend for all the stations. Among these stations Gulmarg station shows significant decrease in the trend. With the help of linear regression model all the stations showed decrease in trend with negative slope. While, the annual analysis of rainfall shows a decreasing trend at all station, Mann-Kendall test showed that the decreasing trend was significant (at 5% confidence level) only at Gulmarg station. Mean maximum temperature of all the station does not show similar trend. Some stations show increase in trend while some show decrease in trend. Srinagar, Pahalgam and Kupwara showed increase in trend with varying slope. There was decrease in trend in the mean maximum temperature for with varying negative slopes for Gulmarg, Qazigund and Kokernag. Rainfall versus mean maximum temperature variation was also evaluated in this study. Areas having high temperature received low rainfall and vice-versa.

Keyphrases: Jhelum, Rainfall, analysis

@booklet{EasyChair:6335,
  author    = {Msbah Fayaz and Aqib Majied and Junaid Zahoor and Irtiza Nazir},
  title     = {Rainfall Analysis of Jhelum Basin Kashmir Valley},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 6335},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2021}}