Prediction the Crime Motorcycles of Theft using ARIMAX-TFM with Single Input

EasyChair Preprint no. 496

Abstract

The increase in motorcycle theft can be driven by several factors. For example, population growth and density, commuting behavior, motorcycles growth, and so on. This causes difficulties for the police to control and monitor on a regular basis since it requires forecasting and probabilities of theft in a particular time period. This study proposes the development of a computer application model to predict the level of the crime of motorcycle theft with an approach to take into account external influences by using ARIMAX – transfer function model with single input that is the number motorcycles. The results of this study get best model of ARIMAX with level of accuracy obtained by MAPE and RMSE are 32.30 and 6.68.

Keyphrases: ARIMAX, case, motorcycle theft, prediction, transfer function model

@Booklet{EasyChair:496,
  author = {Azhari and Pradita Eko Prasetyo Utomo},
  title = {Prediction the Crime Motorcycles of Theft using ARIMAX-TFM with Single Input},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 496},

  year = {EasyChair, 2018}}